Fact-checking statistics about Kenya’s ‘boda boda’ transport sector
How accurate are claims that 500,000 motorcycles are in the ‘boda boda’ business in Kenya and that 76,000 unregistered ‘boda boda’ operators are based in Nairobi alone?
On October 18, Twitter user Gabriel Oguda claimed there are 500,000 motorcycles in the ‘boda boda’ business, with 16,500 units imported every month, and 76,000 unregistered operators in Nairobi alone.
Mr Oguda further claimed 1,075 people died from boda boda accidents in 2020 alone — 301 pillion passengers (a passenger that sits behind the rider on a motorbike) and 774 motorcyclists.
However, the source of these statistics was not quoted, despite a query from one of the users who responded to Mr Oguda’s tweet.
‘Boda bodas’ are two-wheeler commercial motorcycles that have become a popular mode of transport both in the Kenyan rural areas and urban sprawls, moving people and goods from one place to another. They have especially been entrenched in the Kenyan transport infrastructure aside from serving as a source of employment and livelihood to many.
So, the question is, how true are the statistics tweeted by Gabriel Oguda about ‘boda bodas’ in Kenya?
PesaCheck has examined all the four claims and found out the following:
Claim 1: There are 500,000 motorcycles in the ‘boda boda’ business
Verdict: MOSTLY FALSE
On July 18, 2020, the National Transport and Safety Authority (NTSA) began registering all boda boda operators in Kenya in a move aimed at reducing accidents and curbing criminal activities involving motorbikes.
This suggests that there is no official database with details on the exact number of motorcycles in the boda boda business, as confirmed in a 2018 report by the National Crime Research Centre (NCRC) — a State Corporation under the Ministry of Interior and Coordination of National Government.
“The National Transport and Safety Authority (NTSA) reported that there were 1,393,390 motorcycles registered in Kenya as at February 2018. However, the exact numbers of these motorcycles operating as ‘boda bodas’ in the country is not known and documented.
The lacuna in policy regarding the registration, regulation, monitoring and use of motorcycles in boda boda public service vehicle (PSV) transport is a cause for alarm,” read the report.
Another report by the NCRC in 2019 recommended the establishment of a database of all boda boda operators in Kenya through mandatory registration, refresher training and testing.
According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics’ (KNBS) Economic Survey 2020 and 2015, the combined total of the number of registered motor and auto cycles over the last 10 years is 1,427,533. Both surveys make no mention of how many of these imported units are used as boda bodas.
The Motorcycle Assemblers Association of Kenya (MAAK) told PesaCheck in an email response it estimates that there are about 900,000 motorcycles in Kenya in the boda boda business.
However, the figures by MAAK do not take into account those units that are directly imported into the country or those that are bought for personal use; rather, only those that are assembled locally.
The National Chairman of Boda Boda Safety Association of Kenya, Kevin Mubadi, told PesaCheck that there are 1.4 million boda bodas in Kenya. Again this is also an estimated figure, based on media reports and pronouncements by government officials.
“We are rolling out massive registration to ensure that all of them are digitally registered,” Mr Mubadi said. However, he did not give a timeline on when this would be conducted.
According to UNLEASH, a non-profit founded in 2016, the boda boda sector employs over 1.2 million youth.
Based on the available evidence, the claim that there are 500,000 motorcycles in the boda boda business is therefore MOSTLY FALSE.
Claim 2: There are 76, 000 unregistered operators in Nairobi alone.
Verdict — INCONCLUSIVE
The 2018 report by the NCRC pointed out that the issue of unregistered motorcycles is one of the major impediments to addressing the issue of run-away crime plaguing the sub-sector.
Another report carried on CitizenTV in 2019, claimed an estimated 45,000 motorcycles that year were waiting for number plates but were already in use. The report attributed the figures to Motorcycle Assemblers of Kenya Chairman Isaac Kalua.
But apart from speculative news reports, there are no definitive figures about unregistered motorcycles making the claim INCONCLUSIVE.
Claim 3: 16,500 motorcycle units are imported every month
Verdict — MOSTLY TRUE
The 2020 Economic Survey by the KNBS shows that newly registered motorcycles numbered 210,103 units in 2019. This works out to about 17,508 units per month.
The monthly average of the same for the preceding year (2018) was 15,749 and the year before that (2017) stood at 15,536.
Based on the annual figures of newly registered motorcycles between 2017 to 2019, the monthly average number of motorcycle units imported over the past three years works out to about 16,264.
So the claim that 16,500 motorcycle units are imported every month largely holds true.
Magdaline Karigu, an official at the Motorcycle Assemblers Association of Kenya (MAAK), also told PesaCheck in an email that currently, an average of 18,000 motorcycles are registered monthly in Kenya.
The available evidence, therefore, makes the claim that 16,500 motorcycle units are imported every month MOSTLY TRUE.
Claim 4: 1,075 people already died from ‘boda boda’ accidents in 2020 alone with 301 of those being pillion passengers and 774 being motorcyclists.
Verdict — TRUE
The figures mentioned in the claim are taken from a statement released by NTSA dated October 9, 2020, and which was published jointly with the National Police Service.
In the latest figures released on November 11, 2020, the NTSA said that 884 motorcyclists and 350 pillion passengers died from ‘boda boda’ accidents bringing the total fatalities to 1,244.
Given that the claim in question was posted on October 18, it is therefore TRUE.
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This report was written by Simon Muli, a journalist with over six years of experience in researching, pursuing and producing energising content, that can induce audience attention in current affairs in both print and digital platforms.
It was edited by chief copy editor Rose Lukalo, and was approved for publication by managing editor Enock Nyariki.
The infographics are by Sakina Salem, a Tanzanian graphic designer, visual artist and digital content producer.
PesaCheck, co-founded by Catherine Gicheru and Justin Arenstein, is East Africa’s first public finance fact-checking initiative. It seeks to help the public separate fact from fiction in public pronouncements about the numbers that shape our world, with a special emphasis on pronouncements about public finances that shape government’s delivery of public services linked to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), such as healthcare, rural development and access to water/sanitation. PesaCheck also tests the accuracy of media reportage.
To find out more about the project, visit pesacheck.org.
PesaCheck is an initiative of Code for Africa, through its innovateAFRICA fund, with support from Deutsche Welle Akademie, in partnership with a coalition of local media and other civic watchdog organisations in 14 African countries.
PesaCheck is a signatory of the International Fact-Checking Network’s Code of Principles.
