Fact-Checking Prime Minister Ruhakana Rugunda’s 2019 United Nations General Assembly Address

How accurate are these three claims by Prime Minister Rugunda during the 74th UN General Assembly?

Published in

PesaCheck

6 min readOct 7, 2019

At the 11th Plenary Meeting of the 2019 United Nations General Assembly held on held on 28 September, Dr. Ruhakana Rugunda, the Prime Minister of Uganda, spoke on a number of issues of importance to the country. In his speech, Prime Minister Rugunda talked about global peace and security, combating climate change, protecting biodiversity and promoting equitable social and areas of economic development.

Dr. Rugunda also talked about the key challenges affecting Uganda’s economy which he identified as prolonged drought, floods, erratic rainfall, landslides, and others.

When talking about achievements, Dr. Rugunda claimed that Uganda has taken bold measures to move into the implementation of some concrete adaptations and mitigation actions such as

Restoration of 64,000 hectares of wetlands to benefit 4 million farmers,
Reafforestation of over 200,000 hectares
Increasing production of clean energy from renewable resources by 20 percent
Promoting solar-powered irrigation schemes.

Dr Rugunda also claimed that Uganda currently hosts over 1.3 million refugees, adding that this was the highest among all countries in Africa.

PesaCheck has identified three claims from his address for investigation and this is what we found;

Claim 1: Uganda has taken bold measures to move into the implementation of some concrete adaptations and mitigation actions such as restoration of 64,000 hectares of wetlands and reafforestation of over 200,000 hectares to benefit 4 million farmers.

Verdict: TRUE

Basis: According to a report titled “A Value For Money Audit Report on the Management of Wetlands in Uganda by the Wetlands Management Department (WMD) under the Ministry of Water and Environment (MWE)” released by the auditor general in December 2018, the government of Uganda set up the Green Climate Fund (GCF) project to restore wetland and associated catchment areas in Uganda.

This project was established to run in areas of Kaliro, Namutumba, Pallisa, Kibuku, Budaka, Butaleja, Tororo, Mbale, Bukedea, Ngora, Butebo, Kumi, Kanungu, Kabale, Kisoro, Rukungiri, Rubanda, Rukiga, Ntungamo, Bushenyi, Mitoma, Buhweju, Rubirizi, and Sheema.

The wetlands management project is still ongoing, and intends to restore a total of 64,000 hectares of degraded wetland and 11,630 hectares of catchment areas within 8 years, and includes a plan to plant 33,000 ha of catchment areas with agroforestry and forestry.

Additionally, according to the Environmental Audit Report on Forestry Activities in Uganda, which was published by the office of the auditor general in 2010, Uganda’s National Forestry Authority set out a strategy to plant up to 200,000 hectares of trees by 2025. This report also revealed that the government of Uganda had set up additional interventions such as gazetting forestry areas, pursuing public-private partnerships, reclaiming forest land that had been encroached and sensitizing the population on the need for better forest cover.

The National Forestry Authority also released a press statement in September 2018 covering the government’s plan to restore the country’s lost forest cover. The plan included four designated national tree planting days — 8 March, 1 May, 5 June and 12 August every year.

Both sources used above confirm Prime Minister Ruhakana Rugunda’s claim that Uganda has taken measures such as restoration of 64,000 hectares of wetlands and reafforestation of over 200,000 hectares, making the Prime Minister’s claim TRUE.

Claim 2: Uganda currently hosts more than 1.3 million refugees

Verdict: TRUE

Basis: Data from the World Bank shows the total number of refugees in Uganda increasing from 477,187 in 2015 to 940,835 in 2016 then peaking at 1,350,495 in 2017 before dropping to 1,165,653 in 2018.

Data from the Uganda Comprehensive Refugee Portal last updated on 31 August 2019 shows that Uganda had registered 1,331,565 refugees and these mostly occupied areas of northern Uganda in districts like Yumbe, Adjumani, and Arua. The district with the largest number of refugees was Yumbe with 228,519 refugees followed closely by Adjumani with 205,762 refugees and Arua with 172,238 refugees. According to this same data, most of these refugees had originated from South Sudan, DR Congo, and Burundi.

Considering the country of origin, South Sudan accounted for 63.3 percent of Uganda’s refugee population, with the Democratic Republic of Congo accounting for 28.2 percent, and Burundi accounting for 3.3 percent of the total. The remaining 5.2 percent are from other countries.

Furthermore, data from the UNHCR website also listed the total population of persons of interest for Uganda at 1.37 million, with an Al Jazeera report putting the total number of refugees in Uganda closer to 1.4 Million.

Therefore, the data supports the claim that Uganda hosts currently hosts more than 1.3 million refugees as claimed by Prime Minister Rugunda during his 2019 UNGA address making it TRUE.

Claim 3: Uganda hosts the highest number of refugees in Africa

Verdict: TRUE

Basis: According to the Refugees in Africa report that was published in February 2019 by Al Jazeera, Uganda hosts the highest number of refugees in Africa with 1.4 million, followed by Sudan with 906,600, Ethiopia with 694,506, DR Congo with 536,000 and Kenya with 471,300.

Additionally, data from the UNHCR shows that at the end of 2018, Uganda had registered a total number of 1.37 million persons of concern and of these 1,165,653 were refugees. When compared with other countries in Africa, Uganda had the highest number of refugees followed closely by Sudan with 1,078,287 refugees then Ethiopia with 903,226 refugees.

Both sources used above confirm that Prime Minister Rugunda’s claim that Uganda hosts the highest number of refugees in Africa making it TRUE.

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This report was written by PesaCheck Research Fellow Arthur Kakande, a Ugandan data scientist, and blogger with a background in research, statistical modelling, machine learning, and entrepreneurship development. It was edited by PesaCheck Deputy Editor Ann Ngengere, and was approved for publication by PesaCheck Managing Editor Eric Mugendi.

The infographics are by Odhiambo Ouma, a Kenyan graphic designer, visual artist and digital content producer.

PesaCheck, co-founded by Catherine Gicheru and Justin Arenstein, is East Africa’s first public finance fact-checking initiative. It seeks to help the public separate fact from fiction in public pronouncements about the numbers that shape our world, with a special emphasis on pronouncements about public finances that shape government’s delivery of so-called ‘Sustainable Development Goals’ or SDG public services, such as healthcare, rural development and access to water / sanitation. PesaCheck also tests the accuracy of media reportage.

To find out more about the project, visit pesacheck.org.