Every year, Uganda records 353,000 deaths due to cancer. This is the claim made in an article quoting the Uganda Cancer Institute (UCI).
The article, published on the PML Daily news website, further says the prevalence of cancer is growing at a worrying pace, with 32,617 new cases registered in 2018, against 4,000 cases recorded in 2016 and 4,500 in 2017, according to the UCI.
The remarks were made following the purchase of cancer machinery by the government of Uganda, scheduled to commence operations in December 2020.
Around the world, cancer is a leading cause of mortality, accounting for about 9.6 million deaths each year, which is higher than the combined number of deaths from HIV/AIDs, malaria, and tuberculosis.
A report released by Uganda’s Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development in 2015 records a total of 1,512 deaths, listing cancer as the cause during the 2013/14 financial year (FY), up from 1,463 deaths in FY 2012/13 and 1,326 deaths in FY 2011/12.
So the question is, do 353,000 people die from cancer in Uganda each year?
PesaCheck has investigated this claim by the UCI that 353,000 people die of cancer each year in Uganda, and finds it to be FALSE based on the following:
According to a 2019 publication by the World Health Organization (WHO), cancer is a growing health problem in Uganda. The disease, which affects a patient’s body cells, causing them to grow abnormally, commonly presents itself as a swelling around the affected body part and causes unusual loss of blood. Other common signs and symptoms of cancer include general body weakness, weight loss, unusual fevers, and body pains.
A 2014 WHO’s cancer country profile says the disease accounted for 18,100 deaths in Uganda, with males slightly more affected (9,100) than females (9,000).
The data also revealed that prostate cancer (25.1 percent) and oesophagus cancer (16.0 percent) accounted for most of the cancer deaths among the males, while cervix uteri cancer (24.2 percent) and breast cancer (12.5 percent) accounted for most cancer deaths among the females.
Uganda’s total deaths in 2014 were recorded at 353,000, but this figure was based on the national incidence estimates and modelled survival.
A more recent WHO cancer country profile for 2020 shows that the total cancer deaths in Uganda increased to 21,829 in 2018, while the total number of cancer cases stood at 32,617.
This data also shows that the largest number of cancer deaths in 2018 is attributed to cervix uteri cancer (19.7 percent), followed by Kaposi sarcoma (9.9 percent) and cancer of the oesophagus (7.8 percent).
Most common cancer mortality cases in 2018
A press statement released by Uganda’s Ministry of Health (MoH) to commemorate World Cancer Day, 2019 confirms these figures published by WHO.
Similarly, a fact sheet, compiled by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, also records the same figures.
Data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Uganda shows a yearly average of 19,999 cancer deaths for the period 2014 to 2017.
During this period, the highest number of cancer deaths was 20,659 in 2017, and the lowest was 19,537 deaths in 2014. Cancer ranked among the five leading causes of death in Uganda, alongside HIV/AIDs, neonatal disorders, cardiovascular diseases, and malaria. While this data paints a picture of the progression of cancer in the country over the years, it does not show cancer deaths after 2017.
Uganda total cancer deaths for the period 2014 to 2018
However, where there is data available, all the sources above tally and put the total number of Uganda’s cancer deaths for 2018 at 21,829 — much lower than the 353,000 claimed in the article published by PML Daily.
Additionally, the PML Daily article claims that 7,060,000 (of which 353,000 would be the 5% cancer deaths) people die each year in Uganda, yet sources like the United Nations estimate the number of total deaths to be 1,396,000 during 2015 to 2020.
This shows the figure quoted in the claim is overstated, and therefore FALSE.
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This report was written by PesaCheck Research Fellow Arthur Kakande, a Ugandan data analyst & researcher. It was edited by PesaCheck deputy editor Rose Lukalo and was approved for publication by managing editor Enock Nyariki.
The infographics are by Sakina Salem, a Tanzanian graphic designer, visual artist, and digital content producer.
PesaCheck, co-founded by Catherine Gicheru and Justin Arenstein, is East Africa’s first public finance fact-checking initiative. It seeks to help the public separate fact from fiction in public pronouncements about the numbers that shape our world, with a special emphasis on pronouncements about public finances that shape government’s delivery of so-called ‘Sustainable Development Goals’ or SDG public services, such as healthcare, rural development and access to water/sanitation. PesaCheck also tests the accuracy of media reportage.
To find out more about the project, visit pesacheck.org.
PesaCheck is an initiative of Code for Africa, through its local Code for Uganda chapter, with additional support from the International Center for Journalists (ICFJ).
PesaCheck is a signatory of the International Fact-Checking Network’s Code of Principles.
